Brexit: Leave Or Remain In EU

Why ?

1. The Case For Brexit

1.1 Britain Needs To Change Significantly My belief is that getting out is just one move in a whole, hopefully bloodless, revolution. Nothing less than a complete rebuild of the over-capitalist system that so many have been led to assume is the only way.

1.2 Voter Unhappiness My belief is supported by the distribution of the Leaves v Remains around the country. In London and home counties, where those who live and rely on Britain’s so called hidden income, the so called soft-businesses that liaise often with the EU, voted to Remain. The Scottish, the majority being led to believe full independence will rely on trade within the EU’s reduced tariff zone, voted to Remain as well. However outside of these areas the majority of voters wanted to Leave. One can only guess at their unwritten reasons but many have been interviewed in the media. The reasons I will guess at later.

1.3 Flow Down Is A Lie My belief is that the flow-down of wealth from high earners isn't flowing down but they keep telling us that it is and there's no other way. Of course there's thousands of ways. Britain does not HAVE TO rely on London for its income but constantly quoting stock market figures and all the rest of the financial shenanigans persuades so many of the lie.

1.4 Too Few Exports & Too Many Imports The recent Tory David Cameron government worsened our trade deficit to levels even far in excess of that which they’d accused the previous Labour government of doing. Britain is at record levels of debt. The current Tory Theresa May government show no prospect of successfully reducing this. I believe that we must drastically reduce imports and massively increase our exports. This cannot happen overnight. It requires the build up of the investment - development - marketing - manufacture cycle. We Brits have never been good at this: we have the ideas but often poor industrial relations has eroded the edge that we have in being original. I believe that we are better at this. One superb example is tunneling. TfL set up the Tunnelling & Underground Construction Academy TUCA at Ilford and has trained 17,500 people since it was set up for Crossrail in 2011. I think it’s high time we had more of these for all forms of manufacturing and one for British management which isn’t politically based.

1.5 Therefore Pound Exchange Rate Must Be Reduced

Immediately after the Brexit Referendum the pound weakened. However quite soon it recovered and l’m sad about this. It must be steadily reduced to a substantial low eg -12 to -15%. So many wealthy in the SE will hate this because the cost of their three cruises per year will be more expensive. Currently people oop North are on the breadline with no prospect of full, productive employment ever again. They are left by the wealthy South-East to wallow and, of course, have no prospects of overseas holidays at all. The is the elephant in the room that those in the SE cannot and will not see.

1.6 This Must Happen Soon The change of income base must be done soon because the cost of energy is going to rise steeply soon. We need to be far more self-sufficient and The City doesn't like that because they can't control it and cream off their slimey cut. And as you know when odd things happen to countries follow the money. Britain’s wealth is going into vast personal bank accounts offshore when it should be invested here - just like Italy and Greece and look what happened to them.

1.7 Get Fit - Get Out Of The Tentacles Of The EU We are the 5th largest economy we are told but where's all the wealth. It certainly isn't "flowing down". That's the lie. This is not just my theory look up what John Bamford said a few months ago (l posted it). He and many decent minded British entrepreneurs want Britain to work properly (not wagged by The City dogs) again not shackled by the overpaid Eurocratic machine. Thank God Gordon Prudence Brown never put us in the Euro !

1.8 Immigration So many Remainers painted Brexiteers as racists. Sure there’s been some right wing nutters who have used the result as an excuse for xenophobia so please don't start me on immigration. I'm not a racist (my ex-wife is from overseas) and many of my friends are of foreign extraction but our housing, land and services are stretched beyond crisis level. Uncontrolled immigration is foolish and is unsustainable. Reduction of immigration was a broken Tory promise under in the previous Tory government and isn’t doing that well under this one. Sadly Immigration Is At The Highest Level Ever (Dec 2016). I make no comment at present as this is off my point and too divisive.

So I have set out why. Of course many people are against and I’ll address some of he issues and look at how we exit....


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Simple Referendum Was An Election Promise Tory David Cameron was re-elected in 2015 with his central pledge to offer the country a simple choice: Leave or Remain. He campaigned to Remain so he resigned when the majority voted to Leave. Whether he misjudged the mood of the voters we shall never quite know but he lives comfortably, as so many in the South-East of England do, and perhaps never envisaged needing to plan how an Exit would be accomplished and in what timescale. Perhaps a case of fight the war but have no plan for afterwards - typical politician (cf Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan ...).

3. Brexit Strategy

I believe that in order to leave we need to have a full exit strategy. That would seem obvious but is far harder to actually amass -especially if the government is divided internally as ours is. In order to build up this strategy I believe that we have to work backwards:

Assembly of Exit Strategy

  1. We need to map out what we our relationships will be in 50 years time. A tree structure is probably best.

  2. Knowing that we cannot get there easily we need to set goals working backwards Year 45, 40, 35, 30....

  3. Our current government seems too tightly focused on the desperate scrabble for negotiation now because we’ve wasted over a year so far and the EU treaty says that only have two years. If they wanted to bend that they could invent some fatuous wangle round it.

  4. Coming to the negotiating table we need to recognise that in leaving we are considerably upsetting governments in Europe. negotiation requires give and take and it’s vital that we understand why this is because it affects the EU’s ability to ‘give’.

Why Leaving Is Upsetting European Governments

3.1 We Have Never Fully Towed The EU Line Historically we took decades before we joined in 1972. Ever since then we have questioned every step in the significant expansion of EU powers. One giant leap was Gordon Brown signing the damned Maastrict Treaty (Sovereignty Lost, Control Of Immigration Lost) and even then Gordon Brown Belatedly Signed The Treaty. I believe that the shambles surrounding this, with no referendum, was another factor contributing to the Brexit win.

3.2 We Are Sticking Two-Fingers Up To The Whole EU Dream By leaving we are demonstrating our lack of respect for the EU so called ideals. There are a huge number written down. I believe that there are many that are not written down but are in the ambitions of French and German leaders who dare not say how far they want to go with the Federal Europe that they so eagerly dream of. Their claim, of course, is the EU promotes peace between member states but, golly, at what cost ? Look at the economic dystopia that is Greece with Spain, Portugal, Italy and some Eastern bloc states following close behind. Furthermore has the EU flooded Italy and Greece with help in the atrocious North African Migrant Crisis ? No. Like our Stock Market keeps London drunk on the spoils of trading so the EU machinery keeps many cities joyous in its bureaucracy. However, frankly, even that is not enough.

3.3 We Are Setting An Example To Other Nations Who Want Out No country in the EU is without its dissenters, here known as Euro-sceptics. Particularly notable are the French Le Pen lobby, a huge swathe of ordinary Germans who have major problems with migrants, Hungary and the Italian right wing. Greece wants out badly but if they leave then the Germans would call in their astronomic debt. I believe that Yanis Varoufakis is a genius and takes a great personal risk Blowing The Lid On Europe’s Hidden Agenda. He’s spoken a lot about why the Greek debt is wild. We could do ourselves a lot of good to fully understand what he’s saying what he’s saying. He is a lone trumpeter. He has had to deal with the EU, eyeball to eyeball, many times during his country’s crisis and learned many appalling truths.

3.4 However Brexit Is Not Upsetting Ordinary EU Peoples The picture painted by EU leaders is that Brexit will bring utter woe to Britain and ordinary people in the EU. Yet if you ask them, and my son has spent time over there, they are not so upset. In fact they admire the guts we’ve got. And so should we !

2. Remainer’s Frustration At Uncertainty

“How Could You Have Voted For Uncertainty ?” All Remainers shout this frustration. It’s a natural human condition to want certainty. Business likes certainty. Well perhaps those who were so confident in the outcome being Remain shouldn’t have been so cocky ! Sorry, that’s flippant. My answers to this question are:

2.1 We Were Already On A Travelator Of Uncertainty Anyway The old adage of better the devil you know than the devil you don’t is just not good enough for me. I looked at the politics in France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain and I don’t see an easy peace. There are so so many domestic problems revolving around unemployment and diabolically ignored poor race relations that I cannot see the EU staying together much longer. That will bring big uncertainties.

2.2 Because We Resist Further EU Integration Britain Is Sidelined Looking at the way the EU has developed in the past- it showed no possibility of of slowing its future goal of full political centralisation. That’s not good enough for me. Yes good H&S legislation has come out of the Union but as far as letting the French and Germans run our ship I think that it’s already gone too far.

2.3 The Infamous Waste In my previous employment I worked in EU buildings in Geneva. Frankly they are palaces. The buildings are vast marble lined edifices, with corridors that you can drive two double decker buses down side-by-side, fit for kings and queens. The staff there act like it too and they expect limitless time and expenses. It’s a racket. Individuals are unaccountable. Oh golly that reminds me that the EU accounts haven’t been audited for decades - let alone passed !

2.4 Mercenary Britain This is controversial but this is how I feel: if the EU does not put its race-relations in order, as the UK constantly struggles to do, then it will suffer diabolical riots. This will affect commodity production and will be an opportunity for us to step in and supply while all around lose their heads (Kipling got it right: Poem: If )

2.5 Businesses Need Certainty If a country totally relies on trading with overseas markets then it is exposed to the risks because markets are fickle and, as we have seen many times, they go up and down which is how they gamble money and if skillful make it. What a topsy turvy life ? This was a problem in Biblical times. And, frankly, which businesses are initially going to suffer as a result of Leaving ? Yes precisely those whom I wish to see our reliance moved away from. Yet if we are making our own goods the overseas currency exchange rates and the stocks variabilities won’t affect them and our country will be able to carry on. Yes exports will be affected but that will depend on the diversity of exporters reliance. So it’s precisely not relying on stocks and shares etc that will increase business certainly/stability. And we’ll have far, far greater employment and control over our own destiny. IT’S TIME FOR BRITONS TO WAKE UP !

2.6 My Son/Daughter Has Already Been Adversely Affected By Brexit

This statement is in past tense yet negotiations will take a long time and we’ve certain not left yet, a future event, so how have they been directly affected. If I say this then they retract only in words not deeds (much like the EU that they so admire). They say “Well their future prospects as translators or business people are never going to be as good”. How on earth do they know ? I, for one will be only too pleased that the British part of the inner EU gravy train stops so if your son/daughter if badly affected -good, let them find a less incestuous job. And frankly there will be translator and business jobs in future Britain. Plenty. Because we will be marketing ourselves to the world instead of trying to please the jaded inward cronies in Bureaucratsville. It’s funny how Myopic Remainers become mired in their own belief systems never daring to look up at the vast panorama of opportunities about to present themselves. “Oh no my son’s had it. He’ll be living on the poverty line for the rest of his life.” Please understand your own offspring -they are keen, adaptable and unsullied by partisan views that belong back in 1972. If they’re any good, and I’m sure they are, then they will find a way -it’s coming but only in a different way than The Great Unelected thought.

4. How To Brexit

I believe that we need to fully collaborate with the EU both during these negotiations and afterwards. I’m no negotiator but here’s my stab at the big ask: How ?

4.1 Wisdom  We’ve got to collaborate wisely. As the Bible says: to be as wise as serpents and innocent as doves. Wisdom from a team is like trying to make a kettle from jelly but we have to have a positive mental aptitude.

4.2 Know Who You Are Negotiating With & Their Limits That wisdom requires foundation and that is based upon knowing, what I said above, how we are upsetting EU governments and estimating what their limits of negotiation and time are. This means getting to know your negotiatee. I don’t want to use the word opponent, or worse enemy, because they aren’t; they just have a different viewpoint.

4.3 Be Prepared Our negotiators need to be experienced and they need full briefings and very skillful communication (with others listening in to comments made not in English). Britain is resourceful - one can only apply those resources if you know what they are. Facts are persuasive. Our team needs oodles of them to hand electronically.

4.4 Have A Development Plan There will be a lot of rounds and mini-meetings. We cannot have it all straightaway so we need little ducks and dives that will grow into whole new market approaches - but you don’t tell them that at the first meeting.

4.5 Review & Regroup We will lose some battles but we need to win the war. Losses are to be expected if bigger wins are to be gained. Good memory and right thought through reviews will get us back on the front foot for the next round.

This page was started in October 2016 and has had a few small updates since.

These Graphs

These are the most recent figures I could find. The accumulated effect of the first graph leads to the upward shape of the second (although it’s not the only factor). A low value for the £ will make the problem even worse until buyers overseas see our products and services at this really good price. Then we sell more and have to increase manufacturing and then we earn more cash and reduce the problem. In doing so we reduce our dependency on the stock markets and UK people start to get paid for the work they do instead of hoping for the crumbs of flowdown. This is the only way a bloodless revolution can redistribute profits.